Let’s try the good old strategy for RSI(2) mean reversion.
Buy on Rsi(2)<30
Sell on Rsi(2)>60
Execution is on the Open of the next day.
This is what trading the SPY etf looks like.
How about using the same signals and selling 10, 1-point away from the floor price, front month Puts.*
Again, we sell 10 Puts right below the SPY price.
So if SPY is at 145.7 we would sell the (floor(145.7)-1) 144 strike Put.
We sell the front month before the 11th of the month, otherwise we shift to the next month.
We cover the position on an Rsi(2) sell signal or let it expire.
All Buy and sells are on the next day Close and on the ask for buy orders and bid for sell orders.**
Of course there are money management differences: The top chart reflects %-of-equity money management (hence, the compounding), while the bottom does not (it buys 10 contracts, rain or shine) . But otherwise, I am surprised at the similarity in the shape of the equity curve. Where is the extra time premium I would expect on buying the fear?
How about selling further out of the money Puts. 1–>5 points away from the current price:
Similar results. Any thoughts?
*Many thanks to Dave. for his help.
**I will caution the reader that backtesting options is fairly involved and may contain errors including but not limited to: historical data errors, programming errors, underestimation of slippage and execution costs, unrealistic assumptions on price fills, etc. I use EOD data, so there is no information on the open/high/low of the day.