7 Winning Trading Systems Reviewed – Pt. 3: RSI 25 75

Read pt.1
REad pt.2
Back in 2009 Larry Connors and Cesar Alvarez published several short term trading systems in their book “High Probability ETF Trading”. They described 7 mean reverting strategies. 
What happens, then once a strategy becomes public domain? Do they loose their edge?
All tests are performed on a set of 20 ETFs:

DIA,EEM,EFA,EWH,EWJ,EWT,EWZ,FXI,GLD,ILF,IWM,IYR,QQQQ,SPY,XHB,XLB,XLE,XLF,XLI,XLV
Tthe strategy can hold  up to 10 ETFs at any time.

Strategy 3:  RSI 25-75

The rules:
These rules are presented as found on the internet. Please refer to the original book for more info.

ETF is above MA(200)
4 period RSI<25
BUY on the close of the day these criteria are met.

*Aggresive version: Buy another unit if the 4-period RSI falls below 20

SELL on the close when

4 period RSI>55

For SHORT/COVER.

ETF is below MA(200)
4 period RSI>75
SHORT on the close of the day these criteria are met.


COVER on the close when

4 period RSI<45



“Out of Sample” – 01/1/2009-9/5/2012
Profit = 31651.69 (31.65%), CAR = 7.78%, MaxSysDD = -16739.86 (-13.38%), CAR/MDD = 0.58, # winners = 376 (73.44%), # losers = 136 (26.56%) 

*Aggresive Verion :”Out of Sample” – 01/1/2009-9/5/2012
Profit = 39137.94 (39.14%), CAR = 9.41%, MaxSysDD = -21294.28 (-15.50%), CAR/MDD = 0.61, # winners = 382 (74.61%), # losers = 130 (25.39%) 


These results are good and trade-able at 8 to 9% annual return vs 13-15% draw-downs. Keep in mind these are “out-of-sample” results after the strategy has been published. Although they underperform the market (SP500) they have superior statistics (reward/risk) and will outperform when leveraged.

* All tests performed are not guaranteed to be correct. Please verify any results for yourself. Amibroker code is available upon request.

One thought on “7 Winning Trading Systems Reviewed – Pt. 3: RSI 25 75”

  1. Thanks for sharing. I have been looking for a short strategy to help balance my portfolio and didn't think to look inside some pullback strategies I have sitting on the shelf.

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